Abbiamo più volte (vedi qui) ribadito l’importanza delle parole che vengono pronunciate in sede del Federal Market Open Committee (FOMC). E ieri alla colomba Yellen sembra che siano spuntati gli artigli del falchetto. Nel gergo ornitologico con cui si inquadrano i membri della FED, la Yellen è sempre stata considerata una colomba, cioè tra quelli che ritengono che l’economia debba essere irrorata di liquidità e i tassi debbano rimanere bassi. Invece, ieri è sembrato che la Yellen aprisse ad un rialzo dei tassi molto più anticipato rispetto alle aspettative ultra-rilassate del mercato. Stiamo sempre parlando di una prospettiva minimo ad un anno (2015), però il mercato si era posizionato sull’idea di una inversione collocata nel 2017 o oltre.

Quali le motivazioni? La ragione ufficiale è che la FED si è dimostrata fiduciosa sullo stato dell’economia che giudica sufficientemente solida, nonostante i dati deboli di inizio anno che però erano condizionati da fattori temporanei (meteo). La ragione non detta ma forse più importante è che la FED inizia ad essere preoccupata che, proprio a causa della sua politica ultra-espansiva, il mercato si stia cullando nell’illusione di tassi zero forever e di una FED pronta ad intervenire sempre e a qualsiasi costo. E questo stia generando una macroscopica bolla speculativa sui mercati obbligazionari e azionari. Lo stesso Bernanke,nel suo discorso di addio, aveva ridicolizzato le implicazioni inflazionistiche del QE, mentre aveva ammesso che alla FED si guardava con preoccupazione a certi eccessi del mercato. E dopo aver visto Twitter, Moncler, … non è che gli si possa dare torto.

Quali le conseguenze? Con molta calma continuerà il processo di tapering . Inoltre, si è ribadito che il tasso di disoccupazione sarà uno (e non il solo) degli indicatori in relazione ai quali la FED aggancerà il costo del denaro. Questo può anche essere letto in senso espansivo, nel caso in cui ci siamo segnali negativi che arrivano non solo dall’economia domestica ma ad esempio dai paesi emergenti (nel ruolo di banca centrale mondiale di fatto rivestito dalla FED). Si andrà quindi verso un tapering un po’ più spinto rispetto a quello annunciato nel precedente FOMC ma comunque senza nessuno strappo… Si sa, quando si interrompe una cura meglio farla nel modo più morbido possibile, risvegli bruschi potrebbero esser piuttosto traumatici. Basta vedere la reazione del mercato azionario (in leggera flessione) e i tassi a 2 anni che sono saliti di circa 10 punti base. Comunque, è un dato positivo per il dollaro (e quindi per l’economia europea che non può reggere un cambio a 1,40), neutrale per le azioni (se il restringimento continuerà ad accompagnarsi al miglioramento dell’economia), negativo per le bolle speculative in atto (quindi per certe tipologie di azioni che sembrano aver perso il contatto con i fondamentali e per molti titoli governativi “core” a lungo termine i cui rendimenti sono ritornati a livelli ridicolmente bassi)

Per chi fosse interessato riportiamo il comunicato stampa ufficiale eccolo qua.

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that growth in economic activity slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting adverse weather conditions. Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, however, remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment continued to advance, while the recovery in the housing sector remained slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee’s longer-run objective, but longer term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will continue to improve gradually, moving toward those the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.
The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in April, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of
$25 billion per month rather than $30 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $30 billion per month rather than $35 billion per month.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee’s sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee’s dual mandate.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee’s expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee’s decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee’s outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress — both realized and expected — toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.
When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.
With the unemployment rate nearing 6-1/2 percent, the Committee has updated its forward guidance. The change in the Committee’s guidance does not indicate any change in the Committee’s policy intentions as set forth in its recent statements.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L.
Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Richard W.
Fisher; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; and Daniel K. Tarullo.
Voting against the action was Narayana Kocherlakota, who supported the sixth paragraph, but believed the fifth paragraph weakens the credibility of the Committee’s commitment to return inflation to the 2 percent target from below and fosters policy uncertainty that hinders economic activity.